USD/JPY: which currency is safest?

The pair was falling down amid the waning US dollar. However, the situation changed this month.

Fundamentals

The hottest topic is that the US president Donald Trump has forbidden Americans to have a business with all the Chinese apps such as TikTok and WeChat. How does it influence the Forex market? Sino-American tensions have been widely watched by investors as it’s one of the main barometers of risk. If we look a little bit forward, we’ll know that the USA and China will have trade talks in the middle of August. Therefore, Trump’s ban signals the escalating tensions between the USA and China and puts the upcoming trade agreement under threat. No wonder that the risk-on sentiment switched to risk-off. Eventually, the US dollar gained. Nevertheless, the USD long-term is absolutely bearish. Here’s below the daily USD chart.

There are two main reasons for its further falling. The first one is low yields: the benchmark 10-year US government bond gets closer to its all-time lows. The second reason is the long-standing disputes between Democrats and Republicans over fiscal stimulus. Well, the picture for the USD seems to be clear. Let’s move on to the Japanese yen.

Fundamentals for the JPY are quite optimistic. The preliminary GDP, final Manufacturing PMI and consumer price index came out better than analysts expected. The Bank of Japan claimed on August 5 that it would use all the needed tools to support the economy. It pointed that the situation would get better in the second half of the year. So, Japan is gradually recovering.

Technical tips

USD/JPY has been dipping down for the whole month. It has been stuck in a range between 50 moving average at 105.40 and 105.70. If it breaks above the top of its range, the pair may surge to the resistance at 105.70, which it has touched several times already. The move above this level will drive the pair higher to 106.85. Nevertheless, if the pair falls below 105.40, it will open doors towards the next support at 104.90. Follow further news on USD/JPY!

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Author: FBS Analyst Team

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